Green Shoots? U? V?

None of the above, says Robert Reich in one of the more interesting and cogent things I've seen about the economic outlook in a while. The bottom line:

My prediction, then? Not a V, not a U. But an X. This economy can't get back on track because the track we were on for years -- featuring flat or declining median wages, mounting consumer debt, and widening insecurity, not to mention increasing carbon in the atmosphere -- simply cannot be sustained.

Read the whole thing.

More Malden

From A.O. Scott's appreciation in today's NYT, there's this about Karl Malden's iconic run as American Express pitchman in a series of commercials that highlighted the potential disasters that awaited unwary Americans who chose to travel abroad:

If you had to leave home — maybe not the best idea, all things considered — you’d better have a brusque, fatherly guy like this to back you up and bail you out.

Beisbol Economics

Amazing interactive chart from Ben Fry tracking baseball teams, their place in the standings and their total team payroll throughout the season. Fun Stuff!

Journalism's Past Future

Jack Shafer has a must read column over at Slate about journalism and the long tradition of predicting its demise. Key graph:

Let me say it another way: The barriers of entry into the journalism business have been battered down, making it easier than ever to enter the profession. That will read as small consolation to the journalists who have had their publications shot out from under them—the Rocky Mountain News, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, the Ann Arbor News (come July 23), and magazines too numerous to tally. But please notice that I'm not saying there has never been a more lucrative or prestigious time to become a journalist. The cash and status associated with the profession are fairly recent. Until the early 1970s or thereabouts, the average journalist made an average salary (if that), and his societal standing was modest.

Andrew Sullivan cheers;Megan McArdle throws cold water. I share McArdle's concern about the "hard news" that only newspapers seem able or willing to produce, but I'm more sanguine on the prospects for hard news that is created cheaply and distributed online. The market demand for most types of hard news remains strong, and I have faith that a business model or business models will emerge to replace the "great" metropolitan newspapers (most of which haven't been so great for a very long time).

One recent reason for hope that I came across is something called NYC Council Watch. The site is basically an effort to dig through publicly available documents (campaign finance filings in particular) and publicize the not so pretty results. From what I understand, the writer is a finance guy who was laid off recently and is now doing this full-time. It's good stuff -- at least as good as some of the metro reporting in the three great metropolitan dailies here. I have a feeling we'll see more and more of this kind of "citizen journalism" on the web if and when there is a shortage of hard news coverage.

"Digging Ditches"

Loved this from the NYT obituary for Karl Malden:

In an interview nearly a half-century later, he said he thought of an actor’s work as “digging ditches.” “Sometimes they’re deep and sometimes they’re shallow,” he said, “but we keep digging them.”

He was a terrific actor in so many films (including On the Waterfront pictured above), and he was married to his only wife for 70 years -- 70 years!

Big City as Beach

Loved the Susan Dominus take on the newly pedestrianized Times Square in today's Times. There's part of me that kinda likes the cheap lawn chairs amidst all that glitz and glam and grit. Cheap can be an esthetic.

Pragmatism and Politics

Outstanding column from David Brooks today in the NYT. One nugget on Obama and the Dems' pragmatic legislative method:

But the new approach comes with its own shortcomings. To understand them, we have to distinguish between two types of pragmatism. There is legislative pragmatism — writing bills that can pass. Then there is policy pragmatism — creating programs that work. These two pragmatisms are in tension, and in their current frame of mind, Democrats often put the former before the latter.

Interesting that this describes perfectly what many liberal Democrats fear most about Obama and the current congress, but it's David Brooks who manages to crystalize it better than anyone I've read.

Vindication for Spitzer's "New Federalism"

Fascinating Supreme Court opinion by Justice Scalia today. The Forbes headline, of course, is that this is a rare pro-consumer decision by a decidedly pro-business Roberts Court. The Wall Street Journal is horrified at Scalia's betrayal and his support for "Spitzerism." Eliot Spitzer is happy about the result but sorry that it came too late to mitigate the effects of the financial crisis.

Scalia's opinion vindicates the rather unremarkable principle that states can enforce their laws against discrimination or fraud against businesses that operate within their borders. The case began in 2005 when then Attorney General Spitzer sent a letter demanding information from several banks as part of an inquiry into discriminatory lending. The banks sued to stop the inquiry, arguing that because they were "national banks" regulated by the federal government, a state Attorney General couldn't enforce state anti-discrimination laws against them. Spitzer (and his successor Andrew Cuomo) admitted that state regulation of national banks was clearly prohibited by federal banking laws but argued that their actions as law enforcement officers was distinct from regulation. Scalia and the liberal wing of the Supreme Court agreed.

The most important aspect of this decision is what it means for "New Federalism" -- the theory, oft espoused by Spitzer in his AG days, that when federal enforcement of consumer protection, investor protection or civil rights laws is lax or non-existent, the states can and should step in to fill the void. You'd think that after everything that's happened to our economy the notion that having both federal and state cops on the financial fraud beat is a good idea would not be controversial, but the decision was 5-4.

This is what I love about Scalia and his brand of judicial conservatism. Every once in a while he'll surprise you. By contrast, I don't think we're ever going to be surprised very much about the opinions of Roberts or Alito (although I'd be happy to be proven wrong).

Nice Houses

While I'm at it, the Fast Company blog has a short piece on the prefab design partnership of Dwell Magazine and Marmol Radziner. The designs are cool, and I wish them luck. Just wish I had a vacant lot somewhere to put one on . . .

Tyler Cowen Update

He has an essay hyping his book (see below) in Fast Company Magazine. I find the essay a little webtopian for my taste. It's nice that we're getting all this entertaining connectivity from the internets, but at the end of the day it would be nice if that connectivity led to new ways to feed, clothe and house ourselves. I'm not saying it won't. I'm just saying I don't see that in Cowen's argument.

One of these wives is not like the others.

There were two NYT pieces over the weekend (here and here) on South Carolina First Lady Jennifer Sanford and her reaction to her husband's infidelity and the media's reaction to that reaction. It's pretty fascinating stuff when it comes to sex and marriage and politics and their intersection.

Teenagers and Time

Interesting piece this week on the growth of the Young Adult book market and why teenagers appear to be reading more than adults. (via Tyler Cowan) The author offers many possible explanations for why teenagers consume so many novels, including their purported need for role models and alone time.

Not sure I buy any of this. The fact is that teenagers consume a disproportionate share of popular culture of all kinds from books to movies to music to videogames. No surprise then that a huge chunk of our pop culture is marketed specifically to teens.

I think there are two main reasons. First, because of their new-found autonomy to make their own choices about music, movies, books, etc., teenagers are discovering the joys of listening, reading, viewing and playing for the first time. In fact, these pop culture choices are often an expression of the growing autonomy of young adulthood. Second, and most importantly, teenagers have more time than most adults have to read, watch, listen and play because in general they to not yet have the burdens of earning a living, paying the rent or raising a family of their own.